FXUS63 KOAX 301940
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR
SKIES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL PUSH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND
CERTAINLY THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THUS ONLY EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME FAIRLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH OVERALL POOR MIXING SATURDAY...
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...COMBINED
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS...AND IN FACT...THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IF
RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF THE SREF HOLD TRUE. DECENT RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY... WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPS
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US IN AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN.
GFS IS FASTER TO BREAK DOWN THE PATTERN...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP. AS OMEGA BLOCKS USUALLY TAKE LONGER
TO BREAK DOWN THAN LONG-TERM PROGS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF. NEITHER MODEL PRODUCES ANY PRECIP OVER THE CWA IN
THE LONG TERM PERIODS...THOUGH WITH EASTWARD-PROGRESSING WRN
TROUGH...GFS DOES AT LEAST BREAK OUT PRECIP IN WRN NEB ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED SMALL POPS FROM WEDNESDAY...AS
EVEN IN THE WETTER/FASTER GFS SOLUTION...UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE CWA. THUS...GOING FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY FOR ALL PERIODS. HAVE NOT MODIFIED TEMPS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS SOME WARMING SHOULD OCCUR MID-WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH INTRODUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH WEAKER
MIXING. THUS...BENIGN AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER ERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT
NW WINDS WILL GO VRB...THEN BECOME SW FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY