FXUS63 KOAX 261940
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE FEATURE DURING THIS TIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH WARM DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT TREND IN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE MAIN CONCERN AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS ROCKIES. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MANAGES TO DIG AROUND EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND
HOW MUCH IT SHARPENS AMPLITUDE OF RIDGE COULD STILL MEAN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 60S PER 00Z ECWMF VS. 70S PER 12Z GFS...SPCLY BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING UPPER HGTS SOME 60+ METERS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR CENTRAL PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. COOLING BEHIND FRONT ON
THURSDAY APPEARS MINIMAL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING THEN FRI/SAT
BEFORE SOME RECOVERY EITHER SUN OR JUST BEYOND DAY 7. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH NE/E COMPONENT TO WINDS TO LIMIT MIXING...
SO GENERALLY KEPT READINGS BELOW MEX THU/FRI...ALTHOUGH BUMPED UP
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THU. WENT CLOSER TO MEX TEMPS FOR HIGHS NEXT
WEEKEND SINCE NUMBERS FROM MEX MAY BE MORE INFLUENCED BY CLIMO THEN.
THIS MAY TURN OUT A LITTLE TOO COOL BUT STILL OFFERED SOME
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND COOLER ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE TAF PD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/CHERMOK/KERN