FXUS63 KOAX 281931
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES
THIS PERIOD AS BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS COULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...HOWEVER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS VERY
MEAGER WITH ALL MODELS REMAINING DRY...THUS ONLY FORECASTING A WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY
AND SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
DID KEEP THE FORECAST FAIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE SLOWLY MOVING
SFC HIGH...AND TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A WARMING TREND. GFS/ENSEMBLES/ECMWF
DIFFER IN BREAKDOWN OF AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING DOWN A STEEP UPPER WAVE INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN
AS IT REMAINS MORE OMEGA-BLOCKY. GIVEN AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN...
PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION LIKE THE ECMWF...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL...WITH ECMWF AND GFS OUT OF
PHASE BY DAY 7...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SFC HIGH PRES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROF OF LOW PRES AND COLD
FRONT PASSING THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE TAF PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY