FXUS63 KOAX 311935
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AT 19Z IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER.
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS WAVE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN WITH TIME TONIGHT WITH NO POPS AFTER 00Z.
SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE STILL PROGGED BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL PLAINS DRY ONLY
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN BEING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER MOISTURE INDICATED WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE DRY IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES MAIN
CHALLENGE. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND GFS
MEAN IN DEEPENING ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH THROUGH WEEKS END
ALLOWING CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO REGION NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO TRIM
READINGS FURTHER IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT PD TO ACCOUNT FOR
COLDER AIR SPILLING SWD. COOLING ON THU COULD BE COUNTERED BY
DEEPER MIXING SINCE COOLING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE MORE IN
AFTN...FAVORABLE FOR A DEEPLY MIXED SOUNDING IF WINDS KEEP NW
COMPONENT AND ABSENT OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS...BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...12Z GFS CONTS TREND OF COOLER 850 MB TEMPS
THRU THE DAY. THUS LOWERED TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE THU THROUGH FRI
NGT PD. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN NEAR OR PERHAPS ABV NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS DELAYED WARM UP ON SATURDAY COMPARED
TO MEAN/PREV RUN AND WAS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN 00Z ECMWF.
TIMING/STRENGTH IN ANY WAVE POSSIBLY SHOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH CWA ON
SUNDAY...PER 00Z ECMWF...PROVIDES LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARD END OF
EXTENDED...ATTM LEANED TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD. SFC WINDS WL REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST WITH A MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 12K FT MOST LIKELY. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
ON RADAR REMAINS ALOFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/CHERMOK/KERN