FXUS63 KOAX 220739
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
239 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT BUSY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. UPPER LOW SPINNING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BRING AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE POISED JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...AND WOULD EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT
REACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. WITH INSTABILITY
DRAMATICALLY INCREASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
COULD EVEN SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NORTHWEST IOWA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT A QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INTO/ACROSS THE
CWFA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY USHER IN SOME MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
DIFFERING JUST A BIT ON THE SPEED OF THE NEXT FRONT...WITH THE GFS
ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE NEW ECMWF. THE GFS IS ALSO
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THUS WILL DEFER ANY SIGNIFICANT ONGOING FORECAST CHANGES
TO HPC AND THE NEXT ONCOMING FORECAST SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MAIN AVN ISSUE IS DETERIORATING COND AFT ABOUT 23/00Z WHEN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER ERN NEB. SRLY WIND OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL MAKE FAVORABLE INFLUX OF GULF MOIST RESULTING DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR GIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AND PERSISTING BTWN 23/00Z-06Z.
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TAP DEEP LYR MOIST AND INDUCE
AREA OF PCPN INITIALLY OVR KS...THEN MIGRATE INTO ERN NEB. THUS
EXPECT SHRA AT KLNK/KOMA AROUND 23/00-03Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD/DEE