FXUS63 KOAX 032019
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 PM CDT SUN OCT 3 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STOUT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP
TROUGHING IN THE WRN US...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN
TX THROUGH NWRN MT. OVER THE CENTRAL US... NRLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT
DOWN COOLER TEMPS...WITH JUST SINGLE DIGITS AT 850MB FROM WRN
NEB/WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE/OK NWD AND EWD...AND WITH SUB-0C TEMPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND AS FAR WEST AS ERN IA. 850MB HIGH AT 12Z WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z HAD MOVED EAST INTO
IOWA...WITH SRLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH ALREADY OFF
TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EVEN IN THE
ERN CWA. ALSO...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BUMP MID-LEVEL TEMPS
UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUS...THINK LOWS MIGHT HIT
JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE ERN CWA. HAVE HELD
OFF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THOUGH DID MENTION PATCHY FROST
FROM AROUND THE MO VALLEY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY...AND HAVE INDICATED NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT BREAKS DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST AND OPENS WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MODELS THEN CLOSE OFF AGAIN FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE OPENING
UP WITH A POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AWAITING LATER
RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCTION OF ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
EAST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN THE
5KT RANGE...AROUND 02Z...BEFORE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/FOBERT/MEYER