FXUS63 KOAX 131958
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
TIMING OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/WIND SHIFTS REMAIN MAIN CHALLENGE
AND THEN BASICALLY REGARDING HOW THEY WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND WITH QUICKLY
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
FAIRLY FAST BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND PERHAPS INCREASING A LITTLE
TOWARD MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. LOWERED LOWS A BIT TOWARD
GFS GUIDANCE...MAINLY BECAUSE MET LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE A
FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE MODEST RETURN FLOW. DECENT SETUP FOR
MIXING ON THURSDAY AS WIND SHIFT CROSSES INTO SERN NEBR AT MAX
HEATING...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND IT MINIMAL AND SFC WNDS RETAIN
MORE OF NW COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO NRLY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW WRN/SWRN ZONES TO REACH 80 MIXING TO 850 MB USING NAM/GFS
FCST BLEND.
WEAK COOLING THEN THU NGT BEFORE WARM ADVCTN RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT FRONT. LTL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH ERN ZONES PROBABLY
FEELING EFFECTS OF WEAKER MIXING AND COOLER TEMPS ON FRI.
DPROG/DT HAS SHOWN TIMING OF FRONT ON SATURDAY GENERALLY HAS
TRENDED A BIT FASTER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS WITH IT REACHING
OMA/LNK AROUND 18Z. 12Z NAM WAS SIMILAR. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON MAX TEMPS AROUND AND SE OF OMA/LNK...DID LOWER
THEM SEVERAL DEGREES N/NW OF THERE AS WINDS TURN N/NERLY LIMITING
MIXING A BIT. STILL LITTLE INDICATION OF MUCH MOISTURE/CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PDS OF CIRRUS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU WITH STRONG MIXING NEAR BOUNDARIES
THU AND SAT AFTNS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED.
A WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN CWA TO START THE EXTENDED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW OVR THE NRN AND CNTRL U.S.
AND WARM FRONT THEN WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CWA SUNDAY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON HOW THE WEST COAST TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW DEEP THE NRN STREAM TROF IS OVR THE NRN U.S. FOR
NOW HAVE TRENDED WITH THE STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR MONDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S...BUT COOLER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER NV/UT/AZ
MONDAY SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE LOCAL AREA IN A COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW NORMAL AND STILL MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PD. SFC WINDS
WL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/ZAPOTOCNY/KERN