FXUS63 KOAX 050748
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
248 AM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY AS EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH/LOW IS SHOVED EWD AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS CNTRL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND INTO FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE PATTERN POSSIBLY BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE ACROSS PLAINS.
LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TODAYS GRIDS/MAX TEMPS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
DOWN LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z SAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PER
GFS/NAM SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE MOST AREAS. ALSO MADE LTL ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS SAT/SUN AS
MUCH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS OVERSPREAD FCST AREA. A WAVE TOPPING
RIDGE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH N OF US TO KEEP ANY ASSOCD FRONT TO OUR N
AND PROVIDES MORE OF A SSW COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS TO ALLOW
POSSIBLY A BIT DEEPER MIXING THAN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED...GENERALLY
NEAR 900 MB. THUS MADE LTL CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS SAT/SUN WHICH WERE
CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE WHAT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED. IF
ANYTHING SEEMS POTENTIAL EXISTS TO EVEN EXCEED THESE NUMBERS. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS...SPCLY SAT NGT SINCE AIRMASS WAS
STILL PRETTY DRY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH DECOUPLING TO SEND
TEMPS TOWARD GUIDANCE.
A WEAKENING LEAD WAVE EJECTS NEWD ACROSS PLAINS ON MONDAY BUT
APPARENTLY WITH LTL MOISTURE AND LTL/NO COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS
KEPT MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED SUNDAY EITHER
BECAUSE MIXING/WINDS COULD BE SIMILAR PER 00Z GFS OR WITH MORE OF
WRLY COMPONENT TO WINDS OFF THE SFC PER 12Z ECMWF.
STRONGER WAVE/TROUGH TO EJECT TUE/WED PD WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
BETWEEN SLOWER 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND FASTER 00Z GFS. IF FORMER MODEL WOULD
VERIFY IS COULD PROVIDE MAX TEMPS TUE A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER
THAN GFS...SPCLY ERN ZONES. THUS MADE NO TEMP CHANGES TO TUE
ATTM AS WELL AS NONE IN WED/THU PD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THRU TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH AROUND 21Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/KERN