FXUS63 KOAX 060744
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 AM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING SPREADING EWD ACROSS PLAINS WILL PROVIDE MILD
WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND...ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY. DWPTS STILL QUITE LOW AND
SUNSHINE HIGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT MIXING...PROBABLY A BIT
DEEPER THAN TO 900 MB OR SO WHICH GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
FOR MOST AREAS TDA/SUN. THUS KEPT MAX TEMPS ABOVE THAT WHICH
SOUNDINGS INDICATED...LTL/NO CHANGE FM PREV FCST AND CLOSER TO
WARMER MET GUIDANCE. INVERSION WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SPCLY
SUN...NOT MUCH ABOVE 900 MB AND IF WE MANAGE TO MIX A LITTLE
DEEPER TEMPS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGS WARMER AND SOME AREAS MIGHT
REACH RED FLAG FIRE WX CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN TERMS OF MIXING TODAY TO ASSESS FOR
SUN. WITH LOW DWPTS THERE STILL IS THE RISK OF MANY AREAS
DECOUPLING ENOUGH TNGT TO ALLOW READINGS TO FALL TOWARD MID/UPR
30S GUIDANCE BLEND TNGT. HOWEVER..POSSIBLY SOME BIG RANGES ACROSS
THE CWA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS OF MIXING VS. NON-MIXING.
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MINIMAL DEEP MOISTURE FCST TO
LIFT NE ACROSS FCST AREA SUN NGT/EARLY MONDAY WITH LTL/NO COOLING
ASSOCD WITH IT. THUS STILL EXPECT MANY HIGHS MONDAY TO APPROACH
THOSE OF SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWS MONDAY PROBABLY A BIT MILDER MOST
AREAS AS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE PROBABLE ALONG WITH A
BIT STRONGER SUSTAINED WNDS SERN ZONES. DUE TO MILDER START COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME AREAS MONDAY WARMER THAN SUNDAY...SPCLY
ACROSS THE S...BUT PLAYED THINGS CONSERVATIVE ATTM.
ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER WITH FRONT ON TUE...AND 00Z GFS HAS SLOWED A
BIT SINCE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. THUS BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SERN
1/2-2/3RDS A FEW DEGREES. LEFT IN SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN TUE
NGT...BUT CHCS APPEAR MINIMAL.
NEXT SYSTEM INTERESTING AS MORE MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT FCST
WITH IT. SYSTEM BRIEFLY COLD ENOUGH A SMALL AREA OF SNOW LATE THU
PER GFS BUT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT QUITE DIFFERENT PER 00Z ECMWF WITH
MOST PCPN FRIDAY AND THEN GENERALLY LIQUID. THUS UNCERTAINTY QUITE
HIGH AND NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU TAF PD. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LLVL
WIND SHEAR WL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PD WHICH MAY BE
ADDED IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/KERN