FXUS63 KOAX 070847
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES MAIN FOCUS IN SHORTER TERM AS THEY REMAIN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS OVR CWA TODAY AND
TRANSITORY SHORTWV TROUGH TNGT/EARLY MONDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY MUCH STRONGER DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT DAMPENS ITS EFFECT.
NET RESULT MONDAY IS PERHAPS MORE OF A WRLY COMPONENT TO LOW LVL
WINDS AND EVEN A BIT DEEPER MIXING AND THUS EVEN WARMER TEMPS. FOR
TDA...SOME CONCERN YET ON WHETHER RED FLAG FIRE DANGER CONDS WILL
BE MET SWRN ZONES AS COMPARABLE MIXING TO YDA COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OFF SURFACE YIELDS MID 70S WRN ZONES.
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NAM/GFS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH ON FCST
DWPTS TDA...CURRENT DWPTS WERE RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE YDA
ATTM. KEEPING THEM AROUND 30 THIS AFTN SWRN ZONES BRINGS AN HR OR
TWO OF 20 PERCENT OR SO RH...A BIT SHY OF TIME CRITERIA AND THUS
NO RED FLAG WARNING ATTM. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IN HWO AND RFD HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN BUMPING UP
TEMPS A DEG OR TWO WRN ZONES LTL CHANGES MADE TO FCST TDA. BASED
ON EXPECTED MODEST WINDS REMAINING UP TNGT AS WAVE CROSSES NERN
NEBR...RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES SERN ZONES TNGT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE TRANSITORY WAVE WITH LTL DEEP MOISTURE AND MINIMAL/NO COOL
ADVCTN BEHIND IT SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO WARM AT LEAST TO
TODAYS VALUES AND PERHAPS EVEN MORE AS WRLY WINDS JUST OFF SFC
PROVIDES A BIT DEEPER MIXING. SFC WINDS THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER AND DWPTS A DEG OR TWO HIGHER AS A RESULT OF WEAK MOIST ADVCTN
AND THUS RH VALUES FCST A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TDA WITH NO FIRE WX
HEADLINES. CURRENT MAXT GRIDS FOR TDA BRING TEMPS WITHIN 3-4
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS OF 78 AT LNK/OFK...BUT RECORDS MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY CLIMB INTO LOWER 80S.
FRONT ON TUESDAY ASSOCD WITH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN W
OF MUCH OF THE CWA THRU MAX HEATING. ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
WITH THIS TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST TUE...FALLING HGTS COULD
PROVIDE A LTL COOLING AT 850 MB...SPCLY WRN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
FRONT JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES AFT MAX HTG PUSHED UPPER 60S WWD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CWA WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN LATE TUE/WED PDS WITH ECMWF
DELAYING FRONT UNTIL WED AS A LTL STRONGER SHORTWV TROUGH EJECTING
THRU LONGER WAVE DEEPENS A SFC LOW OVR ERN NEBR. ADJUSTED FCST
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...GENERALLY
SHIFTING WINDS TO NW A BIT FASTER WED AND TO INCLUDE PCPN IN
MORNING AS WELL AS IN THE AFTN NRN ZONES PER 00Z ECMWF.
DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN IN EXTENDED AS MORE ENERGY DIGS IN SWRN
SECTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENDED. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TAF PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/KERN