FXUS63 KOAX 110921
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WL INCLUDE FOG/FREEZING FOG MENTION FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. FOG IS NOT SHOWING UP WIDESPREAD VIA SFC
OB NETWORK SO WL NOT GO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...HOWEVER AREAS WHERE
THE SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES.
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS A MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN FAIRLY DESCENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PCPN ONSET
AND PCPN TYPE ACROSS THE CWA.
LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES
BY LATER TODAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE 300K SFC WILL BEGIN
OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA
THIS EVENING SIGNIFYING THE BEGINNING OF OUR PCPN EVENT.
OVERNIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE SEWD THRU THE NRN CWA WHICH WL AID IN CONTINUED PCPN
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...CRITICAL SFC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL EXISTS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST A RA/SN MIX
ACROSS OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO RAIN
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PCPN IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
ACROSS OUR NWRN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC
BAND SLIPS SOUTHEAST.
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WL MOVE NEWD THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE CLOSING OFF JUST TO OUR NE ACROSS
NWRN IA. RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS WL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING FROM CNTRL MO BY 00Z SAT TO ERN IA BY 12Z SAT. THIS WOULD
LEAVE OUR ERN COUNTIES AT RISK FOR DEFORMATION BANDING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE MUST MENTION THAT THE 00Z NAM HAS
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE WWD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WOULD
PUT MORE OF OUR CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR CONTINUED PCPN. THE 00Z NAM
IS THE ODD MODEL OUT AND HAVE GONE WITH NCEP RECOMMENDATION TO
DISCOUNT THE WWD AND SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 00Z NAM. THIS
SAID...WE STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE EAST...HOWEVER NOT AS MUCH AS THE 00Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS AND COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN THE BACK SIDE. NOT EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SLOW DOWN AS IT EXITS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LIFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT KOMA THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG SINCE IT LIES IN THE RIVER VALLEY...BUT BOTH
KOFK/KLNK SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KLNK BY
12/03-06Z AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL
RAIN DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO ADD CATEGORICAL RAIN AFTER 12/06Z AT
BOTH KOFK/KOMA WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD