FXUS63 KOAX 160845
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING BY START
OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF RESPITE TODAY BETWEEN DEPARTING WAVE AND
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH IN THE 00Z RUN
WITH PRECIP ALSO TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
IN THIS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TRANSITION AND TYPE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE HELD OFF SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN BEST VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN TIME
SECTIONS...BUT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS IT COULD
START SOONER LIKE THE LAST EVENT THIS PAST FRIDAY. CURRENT SNOW
GRIDS REPRESENT GENERAL TREND AT THIS TIME WITH AMOUNTS KEPT IN A
1-2 INCH MAX RANGE FOR NOW. SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE LIKELY FOR A TIME
WEDNESDAY AS COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW MAY HAMPER TRAVEL.
SYSTEM DOES MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY WITH ECMWF
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING OR
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF FASTER TIMING
IS CORRECT.
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT
IN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE. WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND STRONG WAVE TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AMOUNT OF
SNOW COVER AND ITS IMPACT. TRENDED A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
NO CHANGE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SWRN MN SHOULD MOVE EWD TODAY. CEILINGS
IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FOR KOFK UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING TO OUR WEST BY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD SPREAD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER