FXUS63 KOAX 190923
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...00Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD POTENT UPPR LVL SYSTEM MOVG
ACRS SRN SASK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE NEXT MORE SIG SYSTEM WAS MOVING SEWD INTO
THE PAC NW FM THE ERN PAC. 08Z SFC ANLYS INDCD LO PRES OVR SRN
SASK WITH A STG CDFNT SWWD INTO ERN SD AND WRN NEB.
FORECAST...AS UPPR LVL SYSTEM CONTS TO MOV EWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MRNG...SFC CDFNT WL CONT TO MOV SEWD INTO THE NW FA BY
12Z AND INTO THE SRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. SHLD SEE A FAIRLY WARM DAY
OVER THE SRN CWA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FNT...BUT WL LIKELY SEE NEAR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TMPS IN THE NW BY AFTN. SFC FNT THEN
STARTS TO STALL OVR NRN KS THIS EVNG AS TROUGH CONTS TO DIG INTO
THE WRN US AND UPPR LVL HEIGHTS START TO BACK TO THE SW. AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DVLPS TO THE N OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE CLDS DVLP OVR THE SRN CWA TONIGHT...AND EXPAND NWD
TOWARD MRNG. GFS SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE SATURATION OVR THE SRN
CWA TONIGHT AND WL LEAVE DRY ATTM. SHLD SEE SOME PRETTY CHILLY
TMPS OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLR SKIES AND UPSTREAM
READINGS THIS MRNG. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV TROFS WHICH
END UP EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN WRN US TROF OVER THE 5 DAY
PERIOD...AND THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE LATE SAT AFTN AND INTO SAT
NIGHT. AS THIS FIRST WAVE ENTERS THE WRN HI PLAINS SAT...SFC LO WL
DEEPEN OVER KS AND ALLOW FOR THE LO LVL WAA OVER THE CWA TO
INCREASE. SATURATION IS STILL NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON SAT. GFS
CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WLD SUPPORT THIS DEPTH OF
SATURATION...AND THUS WL CONT TO SIDE WITH THE A DRIER LOOK TO
SAT. TMPS WL BE TOUGH WITH A NERLY LO LVL WIND TURNING E IN THE
AFTN...ALNG WITH A CLDY SKY. GOING FORECAST SEEMED PRETTY GOOD
HERE...BUT DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH IN THE SOUTH. SATURATION
DOES CONT TO INCREASE LATE SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVNG...AND THIS IS WHEN SOME DZ MAY DVLP ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA.
BEST LIFT IN...AND JUST ABOVE THIS SATURATED LAYER...IS OVER THE
NE FA...BUT WL CONT TO MENTION DRIZZLE MOST AREAS. OVR THE CNTRL
AND SRN CWA...TMPS WL CONT TO WARM SAT EVNG AND THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT LEADING TO JUST A DZ THREAT. OVR THE NW FA THOUGHT...IF ANYTHING
DOES FALL..THERE CLD BE A PERIOD SAT EVNG THRU EARLY MRNG SUN OF
SOME FZDZ...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT ATTM.
WL CONT TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS FOR SUN AND HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA WHERE THE FNT IS LIKELY
TO TO BE N OF AND WHERE SOME SUN IS LIKELY. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES OF SHRTWV TROFS WL MOV ALNG THE FNT ON SUN NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT...AND ALSO FOR THE FNT TO RETURN TO THE S
ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ALGN THE MID LVL THRML GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR NRN CWA MAY SEE SOME -SN ON SUN NIGHT AND WL CONT WITH THE
SCHC POPS /BETTER CHCS ARE FARTHER N INTO SODAK THOUGH/. OTHERWISE
SHLD SEE SOME FALLING TMPS ONCE AGAIN ON MON WITH THE COLDER AIR
RUSHING BACK IN. HAVE INCREASED GOING LOWS SUN NIGHT OVR THE SRN
CWA AHEAD OF THE FNT...BUT MON HIGHS LOOKED GOOD. THE FNT WL CONT
TO BE IN THE AREA ON TUES/WED BEFORE THE MAIN TROF SHIFTS THRU AND
STG CAA SETS IN FOR WED/THUR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF CHCS
IN THERE FOR SOME -SN AND GOING FORECAST SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL SO NO CHANGES PAST TUES.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THREAT OF LLWS FL020 AGL WILL CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 19/13Z. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND THREAT OF LLWS WILL DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND WEST IOWA BUT
AT OR ABOVE SCT/BKN200. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WEST IOWA BETWEEN 19/12Z AND 19/18Z. NO PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AROUND 34013KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...AFTER 20/10Z...LOOKS LIKE MVFR TO
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
MEYER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$