FXUS63 KOAX 262026
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
226 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WL
INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY AS AREA IS IN RETURN FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEEP UPPER TROF
SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SRLY FLOW WL INCREASE GREATLY
OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN AS THIS AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD. SWRLY 850MB LLVL JET OF NEARLY 50KTS IS
EXPECTED BY MON 00Z. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED VIA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DESPITE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WAA
REGIME...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
PCPN REACHING THE GROUND.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO SWEEP IN SOMETIME LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 12Z GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF
IS MORE IN LINE WITH NAM TIMING SO HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. THIS SAID...DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS SUPPORTED ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AS CDFNT PUSHES THRU
THE CWA. AS DEEPER COLD AIR PUSHES IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WL TRANSITION THAT PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINING FAR TO OUR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT AND/OR
COMING TO AN END. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 35 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE DUE TO
850 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS PER GFS...AS WELL AS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY DUE TO LACK OF LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...AS WELL AS FAIRLY QUIET ZONAL
FLOW PROGGED BY EXTENDED RANGE MODELS. GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW. SLOW BUT
STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE COLD
AIRMASS FROM MONDAY NIGHT GETS PUSHED EAST WITH THE ZONAL FLOW.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING GREATLY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A HINT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
THE VICINITY. OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF PAINT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE CMC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY.
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW/RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/NIETFELD/FOBERT