FXUS63 KOAX 200949
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...00Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD THE ZONAL FLOW CONTS ACRS THE
CNTLR AND ERN US. MEAN WRN US TROF WAS DVLPNG W OF THE GREATER
BASIN WITH WIDESPREAD H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 5 TO 10 DM. TROF WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STG H25 JET OF 150 KT DIVING SWD THRU THE GULF
OF AK. 09Z SFC ANLYS INDCD LO PRES OVR THE TX PANHANDLE WITH THE
SFC FNT EWD THRU CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO.
FORECAST...MESSY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH MULTIPLE CHCS
FOR PRECIP...ALNG WITH SEVERAL TMP FLUCTUATIONS. REGIONAL PROFILERS
AND THE VWP NETWORK INDCD LO LVL WAA UNDERWAY THIS MRNG ABOVE THE
SFC FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WAS LEADING TO SC DVLPMNT OVR ERN NEB INTO
SW IA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU THE DAY AS WAA
CONTS. REMOVED THE MENTION OF DZ FM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THE
LO LVL JET IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND VEER AS USUAL...THUS THE
DEPTH AND QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE DZ THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TMPS WL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE
THRU THE DAY DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLDS AND NERLY SFC WINDS. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY CLOSER TO 00Z. WAA CONTS TO
INCREASE THIS EVNG AS THE LO LVL JET CRANKS UP...AND MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THIS EVNG. THIS ALNG WITH DEEPENING
MOISTURE WL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE. THIS CONTS TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALNG AND N OF I-80 THIS EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SFC TMPS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING IN NE NEB THIS
AFTN...SHLD FALL A COUPLE THIS EVNG /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOAK
BORDER/ LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ. POTENTIAL APPEARS STG
ENOUGH TO ADD SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION OF FZDZ AND ADD A LO CHC POP
AS WE MAY MEASURE JUST FM THE DZ. TMPS WL HOLD STEADY AND THEN
SLOWLY INCREASE OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THUS
FREEZING PRECIP NOT A THREAT THERE.
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUN AS WE SHLD SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTN
AS WE MIX OUT THE LO CLDS AND THE SW SFC WINDS INCREASE. GOING
HIGHS SEEMED ON TRACK HERE. SFC CDFNT THOUGH WILL QUICKLY MOV THRU
THE FA ON SUN EVNG AS ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF EJECTS OUT OF THE WRN US
TROF AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MID LVL
SATURATION WL BE VERY LIMITED IN NEB DESPITE THE LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THUS IT MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVNG OR MORE FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN AS THE LO LVL
WAA INCREASE ABOVE THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FNT IN THE CWA. WL CONT TO
MENTION A SCHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH AS IF THERE ARE PASSING AREAS
OF MID LVL SATURATION...WE WLD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SN IN NE NEB.
THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVR NE NEB ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIGHT ICING TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. ANY PRECIP
WL LIKELY BE E OF THE FA BY MON AFTN WITH STG CAA FM THE NW MOVG
THRU. WE WILL HAVE SOME FALLING AFTN TMPS MOST AREAS ON MON.
MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT JUST LOOKS COLD AND DRY ATTM. HAVE
LOWERED GOING HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE THEN
IN SIG DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF A STRONGER UPPR LVL SYSTEM
TO MOV INTO THE PLAINS TUES NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. STRONGLY PREFER
A EC/UKMET OVR THE GFS/GEM ATTM. GFS IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH IT'S
OWN ENSEMBLES WITH SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL RUNS SUPPORTING THE EC.
THUS A SLOWER DEEPER SYSTEM IS PREFERRED ATTM. WL SPREAD POPS IN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THRU THE REST OF THE FA DURING THE
DAY ON WED. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL SIG SYSTEM...BUT
MAINLY IN THE DAKOTAS ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...WLD IMAGINE OUR N WL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALNG WITH BRISK WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DAY AS CIGS DROP TO MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE MRNG/EARLY AFTN AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH SOME SPEED INCREASE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$