FXUS63 KOAX 210946
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...00Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD MEAN WRN US TROF WITH A LO-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE SERN US. AT H5 A LEAD SHRTWV TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH 50 M HEIGHT FALLS WAS LOCATED OVR UT/CO. THE NEXT
MORE SIG UPSTREAM SYSTEM WAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. 09Z SFC
ANLYS INDCD LO PRES OVR SW IA WITH A CDFNT INTO CNTRL AND THEN WRN
KS.
FORECAST...SFC TMPS HAVE CONTD TO WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS INDC THAT FZDZ HAS BECOME
PLAIN DZ ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT ADVRY. THUS HAVE CANCELED
THE ADVRY FOR A FEW OF THE COUNTIES WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL LET IT RIDE UNTIL 6 AM. FZDZ SHLD GENERALLY BE
COMING TO AN END BY EARLY THIS MRNG AS BEST LO LVL WAA SHIFTS NEWD
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LVL IMPULSE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. NAM CONTS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
MODELS AND NEVER LETS THE WARM AIR MOV INTO SE NEB. WL CONT TO
SIDE WITH A SWD ADJUSTED GFS/EC FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH TMPS WL
STRUGGLE THIS MRNG...SHLD SEE SOME SUN IN SE NEB THIS AFTN AND
ALLOW FOR A QUICK JUMP IN TMPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR OFF THE SFC.
ELSEWHERE FM I-80 AND N...CLDS LOOK LIKE THEY CLD HOLD STEADY FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY /ESPECIALLY NR AND E OF THE MO RIVER/. THUS
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH IN THESE AREAS. SFC FNT THEN
MOVES S THIS EVNG AND CAA KICKS IN NEAR THE SFC. AT THE SAME
TIME...NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHRTWV TROFS WL LIFT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND START TO MOV THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR LO
LVL WAA TO GET GOING AGAIN LATE ABOVE THE FNT OVER THE CWA. LARGE-
SCALE LIFT WL INCREASE IN MON MRNG BEFORE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MON AFTN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDING
AND TIME HEIGHT RH PROGS INDC WE NEVER REALLY DO SATURATE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DESPITE THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUS NOT
EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF -SN...BUT WL CONT WITH THE FZDZ
MENTION FM LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG MON OVER NE NEB WHERE SOME
SLICK SPOTS CLD ONCE AGAIN DVLP. A RENEWED SURGE OF LO LVL CAA WL
KICK AGAIN FOR MON AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WITH FAIRLY CHILLY HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN.
MODELS THIS MRNG ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TUES/WED
SYSTEM AND WL FOLLOW A GFS/EC LOOK TO THINGS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WHAT HAS BEEN A REMARKABLY /AND UNFORTUNATELY
DISCOUNTED OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/ CONSISTENT GEM GLOBAL.
THIS TAKES MUCH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WELL N INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THUS HAVE MADE SOME SIG CUTS IN POPS IN THE TUES NIGHT/WED TIME
FRAME. AS THE SYSTEM DOES MOV BY WED DO ONCE AGAIN GET INTO A STG
LO LVL WAA REGIME AND THIS MAY LEAD TO FZDZ WED MRNG BEFORE TMPS
GET ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MRNG. SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
PLAINS CLOSED LO WL SWEEP THRU THE FA ON WED AFTN/EVNG LEADING TO
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVG IN. LOWERED HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING AND FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MESSY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AS LIFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD
KOFK...WITH MVFR AT KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT FLUCTUATING CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SOME LIFTING OF CIGS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KOMA/KOFK
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS COME DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT. VIS IS ALSO
REDUCED AT KOFK/KOMA...AND LIKE CIGS...SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
BEFORE POTENTIALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN TONIGHT. COULD SEE DZ/FZDZ AT
KOFK THIS MRNG AS WELL...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ011-012-016-017-030-031-042.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$