FXUS63 KOAX 280831
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATED A DECENT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF THE
CIRCULATION ALOFT MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORKWEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY...STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A 50-60KT
H85 JET OVERHEAD. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT HAVE KEPT THE OMAHA METRO AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA OUT OF IT FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA
IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HAD SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY AS DEWPOINTS COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE MID 20S...AND RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS 20% OR LESS FOR HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH IT
COULD BE CLOSE. ALSO ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE WITH TEMPS MORE IN
LINE WITH MET GUIDANCE VERSUS THE MAV WHICH SEEMS TOO COOL.
FOR TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVELS
SATURATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION LAGGING...
THERE COULD UNFORTUNATELY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE
LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA. TEMPS MAY RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY BE STEADY OR
EVEN FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES
TO ALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT OVERALL.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS DENDRITIC TEMPS AT H70 OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WITHIN A MOIST LAYER. AMOUNTS OVERALL ARE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT A
HALF INCH OR LESS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. MORE IMPORTANTLY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MINOR VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH
THE FLURRIES...WITH WIND CHILL INDICES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL WITH RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LLWS FL020/19050KT WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AT ALL SITES UNTIL ABOUT
17Z THIS AFTN. AT THAT TIME...SFC PRESS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER ERN
NEB RESULTING IN SFC WIND GUSTS 20KT-30KT. SFC WINDS DECOUPLE THEN
TWD 29/00Z WITH LLWS FL020/19050KT AGAIN EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THE DURATION OF FCST PD. NO CROSS WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ065-066-068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE