FXUS63 KOAX 290913
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TRICKY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST THIS MORNING CONCERNING PCPN TYPE AND
GUSTY WINDS. LATEST OBS DEPICTING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NRN KS
HAS BEGUN PULLING STOUT CAA SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH THE
THERMAL DIVIDE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT WRN KS TO WRN MN. MEANWHILE LLVL
MOIST RETURN IS UNDERWAY PER STEADY RISE IN DEW PT TEMPS OVER ERN
KS/ERN OK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE LAYER WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...LOWEST 5KFT...THRU THIS AFTN SUGGESTING
NIL FEEDER-SEEDER ACTION. ALSO...BEST DYNAMICS PROGGED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE-OR-LESS ARCING AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE ERN CWA.
THUS ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. MAIN CONCERN IS
TIMING POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CROSSING THE NRN CWA...THEN
TIMING CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ENTIRE CWA. OBS AT KYKN/KONL/KBVN ARE
ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING WITH A LOW CLOUD
DECK FILLING IN...AND LIKELY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME NOW BEFORE ONSET
OF FZDZ. FOR NOW THINK BEST APPROACH IS TO GRADUALLY TREND FREEZING
TO FROZEN THRU THE AFTN WITH CHANCE TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING....AND
ATTM HAVE SNOW POPS CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO BOTH
NAM/GFS ADVERTISING POCKET OF 280K/285K UPGLIDE WRAPPING AROUND
BACKSIDE OF LIFTING SFC LOW. WIND WILL DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR...
ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHERE IT SHOULD BE APPROACHING
ADV CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK BLSN WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE WELL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. OTHERWISE...DRY REST OF
THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHT WARM UP ON TAP.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. KOFK HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH IFR STATUS BY ABOUT 11Z...
WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...AND EVENTUALLY -SN AND
BLSN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 18G28KTS BY 18Z. KLNK/KOMA
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO MVFR BY 11-15Z
WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR -SHRA THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. HAVE KLNK/KOMA
DROPPING TO BORDERLINE IFR STATUS BY 20-22Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT
18G28KTS ALSO...WITH SOME -SN EVENTUALLY AT KOMA BY 02Z. LLWS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...UNTIL ABOUT 11Z AT
KOFK...AND PERHAPS THRU ABOUT 14Z AT KLNK/KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/DEWALD