FXUS63 KOAX 132052
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
VW IMAGERY AND NETWORK PROFILERS DEPICTING UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER SW MN WITH DEEP SFC REFLECTION IN NERN IA. OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONSISTED OF UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED OF THE WEST COAST WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN STAGNANT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE TROF THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CONUS.
SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF WRN
RIDGE...AND ON THE WHOLE LACK ACCOMPANYING PAC MOIST TO INDUCE PCPN.
BY LATE TUESDAY THOUGH...IMPULSE APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS APPEARS
TO BE BRINGING ENOUGH MOIST TO POSSIBLY KICK OFF SOME ACTIVITY
INITIALLY OVER THE DAKOTAS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN EWD TO THE NRN
CWA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GOING UP NORTH. OTHERWISE...
MAX/MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH THROUGH. SURFACE FEATURES
ARE SIMILAR ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION AREAS. INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
SFC/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST IS PULLING MVFR CLOUD
DECK WITH IT. ANOTHER BAND OF SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS IS NOSING SWD OUT
OF SD INTO CNTRL NEB...WITH CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS AT MVFR HEIGHT FOR THIS AFTN AND EVNG AT ALL
SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITES /KOFK IN PARTICULAR/ FOR
INCREASED COVERAGE. GUSTY NWRLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND WILL BACK TO WRLY TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/BS/BM