FXUS63 KOAX 252059
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
259 PM CST THU NOV 25 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER/UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST...
ALLOWING WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER THERMAL PROFILE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND RESULTANT THERMAL FIELDS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS
WITH EITHER WRF OR GFS.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...
AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO OUR AREA WILL SEE UPPER FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY...FLAT RIDGING ON SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RETREATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH FLOW
TURNING TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR TONIGHT...CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAINTAINING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER TEENS. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE A BIT HIGHER
THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO WILL BUMP LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING IN NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR 20 SATURDAY MORNING THEN
IN THE MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS ADDING ABOUT A
CATEGORY EACH DAY...SO HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MIDDLE 40S SATURDAY
THEN UPPER 40S SUNDAY.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
UPPER TROF MOVING THRU LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS AGREEMENT PUSHES
BULK OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG SFC CDFNT PUSHING THRU DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PCPN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIGHT PCPN CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WL GO WITH
A NON-DIURNAL TREND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SLIDES THRU.
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN THRU THE DAY.
LIKE WAS MENTIONED BEFORE...BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH SO PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU MID WEEK KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS INDICATED.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$