FXUS63 KOAX 030915
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ARE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 MB
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO
AROUND 50 METERS WERE NOTED IN WA...OR AND INTO FAR NRN CA. THERE
WAS ALSO A 300 MB JET MAX AROUND 135 KTS IN NRN CA. 850 MB MOISTURE
WAS FAIRLY SPARSE OVER THE REGION...BUT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
LOCALLY...AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO DRY FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN...ESPECIALLY IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER. DID
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE SD BORDER AND
INTO PARTS OF WRN IA. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD INCREASE A BIT. EVEN WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. WENT WITH A DECENT RANGE ON HIGHS FROM MID AND
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTH. SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TREND TOWARD COLDER GFS. NAM SHOWED 27 FOR OMAHA
BUT GFS HAD 18. WOULD HAVE SIDED EVEN MORE TOWARD GFS BUT WINDS MAY
HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL MIXED. FLURRIES POSSIBLE NORTH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN IN PROFILES. TOP
OF MOIST LAYER APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...
OTHERWISE COULD SEE VERY PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. DID NOT FEEL
THERE WERE ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT TO MENTION THE LIGHT FREEZING PCPN
AT THIS TIME.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING CLDS AND INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS...THEN THE FROPA TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS A STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH...PUTTING DOWN A SWATH OF SNOW FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA/WI. WAA IS WELL UNDER WAY FM H85-H700 WITH
MID CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 8KFT-15KFT. THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR CIGS
IN NORTHWEST IOWA THAT WE WILL MONITOR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TAFS. LIGHT EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASES AS THE SFC FNT
APPROACHES THIS EVENING. FROPA TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 03Z AT
KOFK AND 06Z AT KOMA/KLNK...WHEN SFC WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NW AT 10 TO 20KTS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
FROPA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY