FXUS63 KOAX 050916
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CST SUN DEC 5 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWED OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO
OUR WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO CA
AND NV. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS.
MODELS AGREE THAT 500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE MERIDIONAL AS
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. DEEPENS AND RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHARPENS
BEFORE MOVING EWD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN ON
THURSDAY IT APPEARS WE COULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND INSERTED A LOW POP JUST FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE PCPN POTENTIAL.
THEY ALSO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE COLD BLAST OF AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM WITH A 1040-1045 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING
INTO THE DKTS SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10KTS
OR LESS. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THE PATCH OF
MVFR CIGS OVER ERN NEB HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THERE ARE SEVERAL
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AND SOME OF THESE MAY TRY
TO WORK INTO THE KOFK AREA. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF MID CLDS WILL
EXTEND FM THE ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF KANSAS.
THESE ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER A TROF IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING MORE MID CLOUDS LATE THIS
EVENING FOR THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU
THE PD...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY