FXUS63 KOAX 060915
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CST MON DEC 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR NRN AND NERN ZONES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THESE VERY WELL BUT
EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PROGRESSION INTO NERN NE
AND PARTS OF WRN IA. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON RECENT REPORTS IN SD.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED OUR AREA IN NORTH/
NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NERN U.S.
AND FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WAS PUNCHING INTO CA/NV/OR. AT THE SURFACE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA SWD INTO TX.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SATURDAY...
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN
AS CONSISTENT...BUT DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE REGION.
A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD DOWN FROM THE DKTS SUNDAY...
WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL FOG AND AREA OF MVFR CLDS. SFC HIGH
PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
CREATE NARROW SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND SOME FOG AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLDS TO DEVELOP. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THRU
13Z. ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS WITH SOME FLURRIES COVERS MUCH OF ERN
SD AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO EXPAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE AND WINDS ALOFT FM NW TO SE...CAN SEE
THIS STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA
THIS MORNING. DIFFICULT TO TIME AS THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS
MOVING AT AROUND 12KTS AND THE ERN EDGE CLOSER TO 20KTS. INITIAL
TRAJECTORIES/POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOW MVFR CIGS COULD BE IN
KOFK/KOMA 14-16Z. MIXING OF NW WINDS ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING...SO
THIS WILL WORK TO TRY TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED FOR FUTURE TAF FORECASTS AND
UPDATES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY