FXUS63 KOAX 091011
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 AM CST THU DEC 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITAION ON FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
TRANQUIL NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROF...ATTM OVR THE PAC NW...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROF WILL THEN INCR IN AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVS EWD INTO THE GRTLKS
RGN. BOTH THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF HAVE A SIMILAR SOLN WITH THE
GFS BEING SLGTLY FASTER. SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS OMAHA
AROUND 06Z SAT AND IN ERN IA BY 18Z. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE ERN NEB AND
SW IA WILL GET A GLANCING BLOW WITH SNOW WITH THIS SYS. HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS WILL OCR ALG AND E OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN FRI NGT AS RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AFTER 06Z SAT...COLD AIR BGNS ENTERING FROM THE
NORTH AND PRECIP IS EXPCD TO CHANGE FROM A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW..AND RAIN. BY 12 TO 15Z MOST AREAS WILL HAVE ALL SNOW.
AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...WEATHER SHUD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 40S TODAY AND FRI AND THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE WEEK AS THE REGION GETS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SFC WRMFNT WL BE WORKING EWD THRU THE TERMINALS THIS MRNG. AHEAD OF
THE FNT...STG LO LVL WAA MAY LEAD TO STRATUS DVLPMNT /ESPECIALLY AT
OFK-OMA/. WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP...AND WL TEMPO IN
SOME IFR CIGS AT OFK WHERE THE DECK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER. ALNG
WITH THE CIGS...THE SITES WL CONT TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VISBY IN
HZ. ALL OF THIS SHLD CLR THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AS THE SFC WND
TURNS WEST AND DRIER PACIFIC AIR MOVS IN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FM MID AFTN THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SMITH/BOUSTEAD