FXUS63 KOAX 130919
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CST MON DEC 13 2010
.DISCUSSION...
REGION REMAINS IN UPPER NWRLY FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A DEEP TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. 850 MB WAA IS UNDERWAY JUST TO OUR WEST AND
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE DOWN THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND HAS BEEN GENERATING SOME LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CNTRL NEB. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS...WL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO MORE IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
SERLY RETURN FLOW OFF DEPARTING COLD SFC HIGH. WAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND AND PERHAPS SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL.
BY TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
MIXING. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO WED EVENING AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE POP MAINLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA WITH
PCPN TYPE LOOKING LIKE A MIX INITIALLY AS SFC TEMPS IN OUR WEST
COULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO...WARM LAYER AROUND 5KFT
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD MEAN A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A RA/SN MIX AT THIS TIME...BUT
WL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS TIME DRAWS NEAR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE/WARM ADVECTION WL SPREAD CIGS MOSTLY AOA 6K FT
AGL FM W TO E ACROSS TAF SITES INTO AFTN AS SFC WINDS TURN LGT
SERLY. SOME LGT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN NEBR
BUT IT APPEARED DRY LOW LVLS SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AT TAF SITES AND NO MENTION OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED
IN 06Z TAFS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/CHERMOK