FXUS63 KOAX 220905
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CST WED DEC 22 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SNOW EVENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
00Z NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN AREAL AND
TEMPORAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. MAIN ACTION
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COME TOGETHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE
COASTAL BOMB. GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS LITTLE CHANGED WITH 1-4 INCH
SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MAIN
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME BUT ADVISORY LIKELY IN LATER FORECAST. LATEST MODELS ALSO
SHOWING LESS COLD AIR AROUND FOR SATURDAY THAN CURRENT FORECAST SO
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS UP A BIT. CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER ONCE SNOW ENDS AS CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY BE TOO COLD BASED ON 00Z MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS COVERS MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MUCH OF IOWA AS WELL AS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE NOT
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE...WHICH ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST
OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HOLD MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE THIS AFTN. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
TODAY SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST OR EAST...THEN TURN TO SOUTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT. PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER