FXUS63 KOAX 262136
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES...THEN POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WED AFTERNOON.
AT 21Z...SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER ST. CLOUD MN AND DES
MOINES IA. THE SFC FLOW WAS LIGHT FM THE SOUTH...AND A LITTLE
STRONGER AROUND KOFK AND KBVN. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES GAVE WAY TO AREAS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. PER
VISIBLE AND 11-3.9 MICRON STLT IMAGERY AREAS AROUND KOFK/KLNKAND
KOFK TO KICL IN SW IOWA STILL HAD CLOUDS WHILE CLEARING WAS NOTED
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE COLD IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
TONIGHT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
MO...MEANWHILE A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKES IT/S WAY INTO
WRN NEBRASKA...WITH A WIND SHIFT WORKING INTO THE NW CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING. ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING OUR CLOUD LAYER WAS ONLY
AROUND 100FT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE. AGAIN TONIGHT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER WE WILL HAVE AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
FOR NOW HAVE VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDS AND AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH
BETTER MIXING IN THE NW CWA. THOUGHT THE CLOUDS WOULD GRADUALLY FILL
BACK IN ACRS WRN IA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEB DURING THE EVENING.
STILL SOME QUESTION OVER THE NW AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH STRONGER SFC WINDS AND WINDS ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE TEENS WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN AND LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
SLIP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIVER AND IN SW IOWA.
MONDAY...A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SEEMS MORE CONDUCIVE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN OUR WEST MONDAY MORNING. THE SW
FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING. SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. AT THIS TIME A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ACROS TX/OK/ARKANSAS.
WEDNESDAY SOME LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN KS
AND MO AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN U.S. DEEPENING LOW
PRES OVER COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTH WINDS AND PULL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONTINUE TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20S
AND 30S AND MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHE NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS A POTENTIAL STORM THAT COULD AFFECT US
FRIDAY...THOUGH RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE STORM MAY BE PULLING
MORE WEST AND NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH JUST
A GLANCING BLOW FOR OUR AREA.
WEAK VERY SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING FROM THE MEAN OVERALL TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
AMPLE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY ICE FROM DEVELOPING. THIS SAME WAVE COULD BRING SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT DOES PUSH TO THE NORTH
AND EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO MOVE
TO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND THEN TO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
TODAY ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH LEADS
TO A SOMEWHAT HIGHER LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...RANGING FROM ALL SNOW IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...TO A MESSY WINTRY MIX ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA...BUT NOT REALLY OF STORM MAGNITUDE...WITH ONLY 30/40 PERCENT
POPS MENTIONED ATTM. WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST ANY
SNOW WOULD DEVELOP FOR OUR CWFA...BUT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...WITH ONLY
FLURRIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THE ECWMF EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY COULD BE DRY SLOTTED DURING THIS TIME WITH
PRECIP MOVING OUT MUCH QUICKER. COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
NORTH OF I80 ON SATURDAY GIVEN DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WITHIN THE TAIL EDGE OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THEN DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS.
TEMPS START OUT THURSDAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
50S...BUT WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY...TEMPS DROP RATHER
DRAMATICALLY BEHIND IT...IN FACT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT COULD STILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. SATURDAY WILL BE
COLD AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN IFR CIGS WILL
BREAK OVER ERN NEB. CURRENT LOOP FM SATL PIX INDICATING A FEW CLEAR
AREAS DEVELOPING INVOF KOMA AS WELL AS EXTREME SERN NEB. HOWEVER
TREND THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAS BEEN THE LOW DECK FILLING BACK IN
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE MUCH
REASON TO DEVIATE FM THAT. THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BTWN
26/21Z-24Z TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDS...THEN IFR CIGS FILLING BACK
IN AROUND 27/05Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/DEWALD/DEE