FXUS63 KOAX 292129
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
WARM MOIST AIR HAS INUNDATED THE CWA TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND WILL DO SO UNTIL UPPER SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR FOG ACROSS THE CWA INTO THURSDAY.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA THURSDAY
MORNING AS HEIGHTS LOWER WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM AND WITH PASSAGE OF
INITIAL SURFACE LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NORTHWEST SOMETIME BEFORE NOON AND
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE THERE MAY
POSE A PROBLEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DRIZZLE OCCURRING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING THE PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. A REAL
TRICKY FORECAST ENSUES AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR RUSHES UNDER RELATIVELY
WARM AIR ALOFT. SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT MIDNIGHT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA BY NOON FRIDAY. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK...AND ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER QPF FORECASTS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THOSE MODELS WITH GFS MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TO A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT FOR OUR NORTHWEST CWA. SO HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM
WARNING THERE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
THE REST OF THE CWA IS STILL A QUESTION MARK WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
HOLDING STEADY FROM NEAR OMAHA SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NOON. THIS
PUTS A COMPLEX MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD SWATH OF THE CWA.
AND PIN-POINTING WHERE SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DELINEATION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...THE COMBINATION OF WINTRY MIX IN
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH AN ICING THREAT IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE WARM TEMPS ALOFT LINGER DURING THE HEIGHT OF
EXPECTED QPF. THUS HAVE POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN OUR SOUTH WHERE QPF
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS IF WE ARE LUCKY.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. SLUG OF
ARCTIC AIR WL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURES ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 30/14Z AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME DRIER AIR
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 30/14Z WITH KLNK SEEING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER THAT TIME AND POSSIBLY KOMA BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH COLD SURFACE AIR JUST BEYOND END PERIOD OF
CURRENT TAFS.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-032>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$