FXUS63 KOAX 202128
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CST MON DEC 20 2010
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS UPCOMING SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.
.SHORT TERM...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WHILE A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER
UPSTREAM LOW IS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE
SFC...WRMFNT HAS PUSHED THRU MUCH OF THE CWA ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR NORTH. WEAK CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO A
MORE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHILE THE
NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SD. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STRENGTH WITH EITHER PIECE OF ENERGY NOR ARE THEY IN AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATION OF 700MB CIRCULATION. MODEL QPF IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS WELL SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...HARD TO PIN DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEK. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SYSTEM IN THE
HWO HOWEVER UNLIKE LAST CHRISTMAS STORM...THIS EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTS INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...THE SYSTEM SHLD BE STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE S AND E
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY ENDING FRI MRNG. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD AIR MOVG IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM /WHICH THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH/ ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS ON THURS NIGHT
SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MUCH TO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT
AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND OVER-ALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
/I.E. NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TILT AND SPLIT FLOW WITH STG NRN STREAM
INFLUENCE/...STILL LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVRY TYPE EVNT THAN A SIG
WNTR STORM.
COLD AIR THEN FIRMLY MOVS IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CHRISTMAS
CONTG TO LOOK DRY...BUT COLD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLDS TO REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND THOUGH...AND SO WILL NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND UNDERCUT HIGHS A TOUCH...BUT IF THERE IS SNOW COVER CLEAR
SKIES...CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A TOUCH TO WARM. MOST MODELS THEN DO
HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTING TO MOV INTO THE REGION TOWARD SUN/MON
TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES INDC A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM...AND MANY MEMBERS INDC THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT EXTNDD RANGE AND THUS WL LEAVE THE SUN/MON
TIME FRAME DRY ATTM. CONTS TO LOOK BELOW NORMAL THOUGH FOR TMPS WITH
NWRLY UPPR LVL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 02Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO
DROP SLIGHTLY IN HAZE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN MVFR.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/BOUSTEAD