FXUS63 KOAX 231636
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1036 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE ADVISORY FROM KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES AS 12Z
MODELS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WL REMAIN ACROSS OUR ERN CWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PCPN BAND MOVING THRU
NERN CWA. 12Z OAX SOUNDING INDIATED DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 TO 700MB
SO EXPECTING ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
PREVAILING SNOWFALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SNOWFALL EVENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010/
UPDATE...
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AN AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW FROM THAT. LATEST GFS...NAM...SREF NOT PICKING UP ON THIS...BUT
08Z VERSION OF 3 KM HRRR DID SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010/
DISCUSSION...
SNOW EVENT STILL ON TAP FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY IN THE NORTH TO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO PLACE
PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND IN ADVANCE OF INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE REMAINS THE BIG
QUESTION. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO PLACE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH 1-2 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH STARTING AT 00Z
AND 06Z FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. EXTENDED ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST ALTHOUGH MOST SHOULD BE OVER EARLY IF MODEL
TIMING IS ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT AS
AREA REMAINS ON BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND THE TROUGH IN THE EAST.
TRENDED TOWARD MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME.
NO CHANGE FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WARMING INDICATED.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 03Z...
ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR NEZ015-018-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
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