FXUS63 KOAX 242117
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
SFC LOW PRES AT 21Z WAS CENTERED OVER WCNTRL MO SE OF KANSAS CITY
WITH AN INVERTED TROF TO THE NORTH...WEST OF DES MOINES. THE
STORM SYSTEM WAS TILTED NORTHWARD...WITH THE H85 CIRCULATION OVR
NRN MO...THE H70 LOW OVER CNTL IOWA...AND THE H5 LOW OVR SRN MN.
MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7 LOW. MEANWHILE...THERE IS TRAILING
AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY/WEAK
UVV/THETA-E ADVECTION WHERE VSBYS ARE DOWN TO 11/2 TO 2SM. THIS
FEATURE OVER NRN IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CNTRL IA
THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS EVENING...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THIS
EVENING...DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING RH. THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THAT 8 TO 15 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR...PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WRN IOWA.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVSIORY TO EXPIRE AT 4PM.
TRAVELERS WILL STILL NEED TO EXCERCISE CAUTION AS THE SUN GOES
DONE AND THE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DROP. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AND HOLD TEMPS UP WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO TRY TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRENDED TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
AS THE LACK OF CLOUDS (ANY CLOUDS) WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPS. FOR NOW WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS...WENT WITH COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGHS
SUNDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STILL BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR
MONDAY MORNING AROUND 0 TO 10 ABOVE...THEN MODERATING MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAIN ISSUE OF INTEREST IS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM ON DAY 7. PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING NIL HARMONY REGARDING STOUT DAY 7
WINTER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS MORNINGS GFS RUN ALLOWING FOR A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE. NEW GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 24/00Z CMC
SHOWING A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW APPROACHING THE CNRTL PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A MATTER OF FACT...GFS SOLUTIONS FROM 22/12Z THRU NOW
HAVE FOR THE MOST PART PLACED A CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CNTRL PLAINS.
GIVEN GFS CONSISTENCY...REMOP SHOWING RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONSISTENCY CHECK OF THE ECM INDICATES 24/00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO AND NOW HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS...THUS CONSIDER IT THE OUTLIER FOR NOW. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IF
THE GFS SOLUTIONS IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO VERIFYING...IT WILL BE A
HUM-DINGER OF A SNOW EVENT FOR US.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
KEPT CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES. A BAND OF SNOW MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD
AFFECT KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BUT KEPT PRECIP OUT OF KOFK/KLNK FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH LIGHT FOG MENTIONED WITH 2-4SM BR EXPECTED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/DEE/DEWALD