FXUS63 KOAX 100946
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BLOWING SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WINDCHILLS.
THE H3 JET AT 00Z WAS 140KT AND DIVING ACRS CA/NV/UT WITH UPR
LEVEL DIV OVR THE CNTRL PLNS. THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER MT AND ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NW QUARTER OF THE
U.S. AND HAD 60 MT HT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE WAS A
COMPLEX PATTERN AT H7/85 WITH TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES...ONE WITH
THE MT SYSTEM AND ONE WITH THE STORM MOVING ACRS THE GULF STATES.
OF NOTE WAS THE WAA FM H85 TO H7 AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE
MOIST CONDITIONS THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. OF NOTE ON THE SFC IS AN
INVERTED TROF EAST OF VTN AND WEST OF KOFK AND KAUH. THE WSR-88D
AND OBS REFLECT A LARGE AREA OF SNOW FM KS/NE INTO NW MO AND IA.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY AND IN
TURN...THE MAX LIFT PRECIP AREA OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEBRASKA SHIFTS
INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED INTO THE EVENING
WERE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN...WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGH OMAHA...LINCOLN...FREMONT AND DODGE...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES TOWARD NORFOLK. LOOK TO SEE SOME GOOD 2-4"AMOUNTS FOR THE
06-12Z TIME PERIOD AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1-3" OLU-
PENDER/2-4" SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE TOWARD FREMONT/4-6" OMAHA INTO
SW IOWA FOR THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH THE BULK OCCURING THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NEB AND DURING THE ENTIRE DAY FOR WRN
IA. FOR THIS ENTIRE LONG DURATION EVENT...SNOW TOTALS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES.
AS THE SFC TROF SWINGS THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND ALTHOUGH THE FALLING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH ACRS THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG
WITH THE WINDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE THE AREA AS WELL
WILL COLD WIND CHILLS. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND CONTINUE IT OVERNIGHT ACRS THE CWA. WITH THE SNOW
ENDING...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TRANSITION TO A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY/WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND MONITOR
WINDS. ALREADY BOOSTED WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20KT SUSTAINED
CATEGORY AND STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO WORSE CONDITIONS.
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
VALUES. WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THUS WOULD NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE FOR THE BITTER
COLD CONDITIONS
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z...
WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY UNDER 1500 FT AND DOWN AS LOW AS 400 FT AT
TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK MAINLY
PRIOR TO 15Z. MODERATE SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR KOMA AND
KLNK MAINLY BEFORE 00Z. INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVED EASTWARD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND INCREASING WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN AT
KOFK...LATE AFTN AT KLNK AND MORE TOWARD EARLY EVENING AT KOMA.
FALLING SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT KOFK THIS EVENING
WITH VSBY POSSIBLY RISING TO ABOVE 5 MILES...BUT BLOWING SNOW
WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER