FXUS63 KOAX 150939
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL APPARENTLY MINOR DISTURBANCES IN NWRLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS
MAIN FOCUS INTO MONDAY AND THEN MAINLY FOR PCPN TYPE AS AMOUNTS
APPEAR THEY WL BE MINIMAL. FIRST DISTURBANCE IN FORM OF AN UPPER LVL
JET SPEED MAX WILL BE MOVG ACROSS NERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
MOVG ACROSS MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTN. THIS MAX WAS SPREADING A
SMALL AREA OF LGT SNOW TOWARD NERN NEBR AS OF 0830Z AND THUS
BOOSTED SNOW CHCS THIS AM...MAINLY NRN ZONES. ANY SNOW PRBLY OVER
BY AFTN BUT LEFT IN SMALL CHCS NW ZONES CLOSE TO H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE. PREV FCST MAX TEMPS LOOK PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
MOST READINGS LEVELING OFF/PERHAPS GOING UP A DEG OR TWO EARLY
THIS AFTN BFR HEADING BACK DOWN A LTL. FOR TNGT...AGAIN LTL/NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS AS CLOUDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVCTN SHOULD KEEP
READINGS FROM FALLING TO COLDER MAV LEVELS. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE NOTED NEAR H85 BOUNDARY TNGT ALTHOUGH THIS LIFT IS MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED SUN NGT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STRONGER WAVE DROPS
SE. NONETHELESS...00Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ALL KEY QPF MAX
IN SERN NEBR. ALTHOUGH LIFT MIGHT NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
THE 0.10 QPF AVERAGE AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS...DID FEEL IT WAS
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY W THRU SW
OF OMA. PCPN TYPE GENERALLY SNOW TNGT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ALTHOUGH AS LIFT ABATES SUN MORNING AND RH DRIES OUT
IN DENDRITIC LYR STILL FEEL FZDZ A THREAT AS LOW LVL WARM ADVCTN
PERSISTS.
TEMPS STEADILY INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND
WITH CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC LOW NE OF FCST AREA...PULLED 32 MAX T
ISOTHERM FOR MONDAY FARTHER NE. ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS STRONGER
LATE SUN NGT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE IN H85-H7 LAYER WAS NOT AS
HIGH AS SUN AM AND THUS DID NOT INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
JUST YET. MAIN PCPN TYPE STILL APPEARS IT WL BE FZRA SUN NGT WITH
A SLEET/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FAR NERN ZONES. PULLED FZRA/RAIN
MENTION FARTHER N ON MONDAY AM AND RAIN AREA FARTHER N MON AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR SFC TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FARTHER NE. ARCTIC
FRONT BEHIND LOW MONDAY NGT PERHAPS A BIT DELAYED COMPARED TO PREV
RUNS AND THUS RAISED TEMPS BOTH MON NGT AND TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLOWER OR NOT AS STRONG ARRIVAL. HOWEVER THIS CHANGE STILL KEPT
THEM GENERALLY BELOW 00Z MEX AND WELL BELOW WEIGHTED MODEL. COULD
BE POST FRONTAL FLURRIES IF COLDER ECMWF/GEM VERIFY...BUT ATTM
LEFT THEM OUT.
STILL SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES IN NWRLY FLOW DURING REST OF
EXTENDED WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR REVISIONS TO THOSE PDS IN LATER
FORECASTS...BUT NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
SLEET IS PSBL AFTER 10Z AT KOFK AND BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT KOMA.
THIS WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU QUICKLY WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 015BKN AND THEN BECOME AROUND 020OVC
BETWEEN 15-18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/SMITH