FXUS63 KOAX 180923
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WEDNESDAY SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND CAA CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FLURRIES WERE REPORTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA
AND WL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING MOST OF THE MORNING DRY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER WRN SD WL MOVE THRU NWRLY FLOW AND INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL RH INDICATES AN INCREASE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WITH ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING
WAVE...SCATTERED FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY COLD OVERNIGHT WITH
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH.
FOCUS TURNS TO APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROF MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP PCPN TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD IT QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING. THINK THERE WILL BE A SHARP ERN EDGE
TO THE SNOW INITIALLY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
WITH THEIR SOUTHERN POSITIONING RATHER THAN THE 00Z NAM WHICH
CAME IN WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATED VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION /850-500
MB/ OVER CWA FROM AROUND 15Z WED THRU 00Z THUR WITH DEDRITIC
RIBBON LYING WITHIN STRONGEST OMEGA BULLS EYE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR QUICK SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE CWA. SRN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF
NEAR 5 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WL NOT
GO WITH A WATCH PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE
FACT THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL JUST UNDER THE NWS CRITERIA
FOR A WATCH. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY AS WELL. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING
DAYTIME HOURS AND ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE COVER THIS EVENT. WE
ARE THINKING CLOSE TO 13:1 RATIO FOR THIS SNOWFALL EVENT AND MAYBE
A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE SRN COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT
WHICH COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW HOWEVER A MUCH
STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
BAND OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE
TAF SITES...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KLNK/KOMA BY 10Z. BEYOND THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 8-10KTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES THAT AFFECT PRIMARILY KOFK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALSO.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD