FXUS63 KOAX 022110
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST SUN JAN 2 2011
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW CLIPPERS
FORECAST TO SKIRT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK 850MB WAA
AND SWRLY SFC WINDS ACROSS SERN NEB HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS IN OUR FAR
SRN ZONES TO SLIDE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST
CLIPPER WL DROP INTO ERN SD LATE TOMORROW MORNING. LESS FAVORABLE
MIXING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WL KEEP MONDAY HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW WHERE THEY ARE TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH. IN CONTINUED
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK 850MB WAA OCCURRING. WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO MONDAYS READINGS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SKIRTS
THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE CWA TURNING
SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKE YESTERDAY...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NOW SO KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPLIT FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA...WITH A CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
PUTS OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
STILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM. THE
LATEST MODELS HANDLE A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER ONTARIO CANADA A BIT
DIFFERENTLY...BUT AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER COMPARED TO WHAT IT
WAS YESTERDAY. STILL...CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON DETAILS IS PROBABLY BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND LATEST CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT AFFECTED BY CURRENT SNOW COVER IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST...BUT LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW IN OUR AREA NOW ARE RESPONDING
WITH A DECENT WARM UP. SO...WOULD EXPECT ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT MODELS DO NOT SHOW
SIMILAR TIMING. 12Z CANADIAN MODEL IS FASTEST WITH BACK DOOR ARCTIC
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS BRINGS IN COLDER AIR LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE EVEN SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH COLDER AIR.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME FLURRIES WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
PCPN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PD WITH SCATTERED TO BKN MID CLOUDS FROM
10-15K FT. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY