FXUS63 KOAX 242145
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATUS DECK COVERS MOST OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO HOLD THRU
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING UP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP THRU THE OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS DO DIE OFF
AROUND 12Z AS WEAK AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS RIGHT BEFORE
SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT MIXES WARMER TEMPS DOWN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF TODAYS HIGHS
WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FORECAST
GOING WITH FORECAST SOUNDING HINTING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. PRIMARILY LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS
POINT.
ANOTHER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETS THE FORECAST AREA UP FOR ANOTHER WARM UP ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF MILD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MILD WEATHER IS PROGGED TO START THE EXTENDED AS THE WRN US RIDGE
WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THOUGH IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A POTENT SHRTWV TROF KNOCKS DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
AGAIN. FRONTAL TIMING STILL LOOKS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE FNT
COMING THRU DURING THE DAY ON FRI...BUT THE COLDER AIR LAGGING A BIT
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LEFT LOWS/HIGHS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR THE
FRI TIME PERIOD...BUT DID BUMP UP READINGS A TOUCH OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLDEST OF THE AIR.
CDFNT CONTS TO LOOK MAINLY DRY THOUGH AS THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPR
LVL ENERGY SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST. THIS MAY CHANGE THOUGH LATER IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE MID LVL FLOW STARTS TO BACK WITH A SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED DRY ATTM...BUT
SOME POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS
THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LVL FRONT ACROSS THE
FA. TMPS SHLD CONT TO COOL INTO THE MON TIME FRAME AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES SWD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MILD AIR SPREAD SE ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA EARLY MON AFTN BEHIND A SFC
TROUGH THAT REACHED THE MO RIVER NEAR KOMA AT 24/18Z. MVFR CIGS
TRAILED THIS WSHFT A BIT AND THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH THRU KOMA
AND KLNK THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH BREAKS AND/OR CIGS LIFTING ABOVE 3000
FT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING...CIGS SHOULD LOWER BACK DOWN WITH
COOLING THIS EVENING. THEY COULD POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER INTO IFR RANGE
AT KOFK FOR A BRIEF PD. FORECAST WAS BASED ON EXPECTATION THAT LOW
CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/MOV E OF TAF SITES LATER TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SE ACROSS MO RVR VALLEY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/BOUSTEAD/CHERMOK