FXUS63 KOAX 212127
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
INGREDIENTS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SERIES OF WAVES RIDING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WRN
CONUS TROF. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF OF CONCERN SEEN ON WV IMAGERY THIS
AFTN POISED TO MOVE ASHORE OVER THE PAC NW. SEEMS TO BE RATHER GOOD
TIMING AGREEMENT BTWN ECM/CMC/GFS WITH ALL SHOWING INCREASINGLY STOUT
UPPER SUPPORT VIA DPVA ENVELOPING THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT AFTN. FORCING
ENHANCED FURTHER BY DEEP TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT SETTING UP.
500MB HFC...PROBABLY MOST CONSISTENT TOOL FOR PINNING DOWN SNOW TRACK
IN NW FLOW...IS ADVERTISING SNOWFALL AXIS PLACED FROM N-CNTRL NEB
INTO NE KS/NW MO. THAT COUPLED WITH MOIST DENDRITIC OMEGA VALUES
PUSHING 10-15 MICROBARS AND FAVORABLE 850 TEMPS IN -2C TO -8C RANGE
SHOULD RESULT RELATIVELY GENEROUS ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTN. RIGHT
ON THE HEALS OF THE INITIAL WAVE EXITING SUNDAY EVENING...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE CROSSES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY. WITH
THIS SYSTEM MODELS INDICATING BEST MOIST WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THERE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
CLOSER TO HOME FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO TAP INTO. THUS THINK SMALL
POPS NRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF CWA REASONABLE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DEE
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH MAINLY QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH IT WILL DRAG
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE ERN CWA IN PARTICULAR FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. KEPT TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE. MODELS HINT AT AN AREA
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL/ERN NEB TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NWRLY FLOW...BUT GIVEN
LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP AND TRANSIENT WAVE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF
ON PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO MODERATE WITH WESTERLY
WIND COMPONENT /DOWNSLOPING/ AT LOWER/MID LEVELS...AND HAVE NUDGED
UP TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO READINGS THAT APPROACH
CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE WEEK. SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE A COOL-DOWN WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND DAY 8.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS ARE FCST THRU THE FCST PD AT KOFK...KOMA...KLNK. CIGS ARE
FCST TO BE 015-020OVC. BY 12Z CIGS AT KOMA AND KLNK MAY RAISE TO
OVC030. KOFK SHOULD STAY AT OVC015 AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST AFT 06Z.
SMITH
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$