FXUS63 KOAX 312105
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN CONCERN SHORT TERM WILL BE IMPACT OF WINTER STORM MOVING
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
LOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH TO 6 TO 8
INCHES IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL MAY BE A BIT LIMITED THE
COMBINATION OF WIND...COLD AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TRAVEL IN THE AREA AND HAVE ADDED FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
PREVIOUSLY IN ADVISORY TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. LATER FORECAST
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING FOR WIND CHILL HAZARD AS SNOW
DIMINISHES AND EXTENT OF BLOWING SNOW BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
BITTER COLD BEGINS TO EASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AFTER A SHORT RESPITE LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE SEVERAL UPPER WAVES DROP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA TO CARVE OUT A BROAD
TROUGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE COLD REALLY TAKES HOLD ON MONDAY. AND ANY OF THE UPPER
WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
WITH CORE OF COLD AIR REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. IF GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...MAY HAVE TO INSERT SMALL SNOW CHANCE FRIDAY AS A
COMPACT UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER EUROPEAN
MODEL IS LESS INTENSE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD KEEP FORECAST DRY.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A SWATH OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LOOKS TO
FOCUS PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THUS WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPILL
SOUTH FROM CANADA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY THEN TEENS MONDAY
AS CORE OF COLD AIR SETTLES IN THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH WILL PROVIDE PROLONGED MVFR/OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...KOFK 1-2 INCHES...KOMA AND KLNK 2-4 INCHES. EXPECT NW
WINDS GUSTS 25-35KT/BLSN WILL KEEP VSBYS MAINLY IN LIFR TERRITORY
THRU 01/18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-
012-016-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
017.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN/DEE