FXUS63 KOAX 060911
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CST SUN FEB 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
EAST THIS MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 09Z...AND COULD EVEN BE EAST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
BY 12Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...WAITING
FOR THE NEXT PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THAT
THEN MOVES ACROSS AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT TODAY WITH ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH AND
EAST THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR COMING IN FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHERN EDGE...BUT STILL FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD AT LEAST RECEIVE A GLANCING
BLOW...BUT BETTER UPSLOPE FORCING REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR NOW
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF KANSAS. ECMWF MODEL
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL WEST...ONLY BRUSHING
AN ALBION TO BEATRICE LINE...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
BEYOND THEN...ITS A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT AT LEAST ITS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
70
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
DEEPENING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE MOIST LAYER
GENERALLY FL050 AGL AND UP THIS AFTN OVER ERN NEB...BUT NIL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN LOWEST LAYERS. THUS ANTICIPATE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SN ACTIVITY MAINLY BTWN 18Z-22Z
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL POCKET OF WARMER AIR...THUS HAVE COVERED
WITH TEMPO GROUP.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$