FXUS63 KOAX 220908
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD AREA OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD. THIS WL
BRING WARMER RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AND ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z NAM SEEMED TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
REGARDS TO QPF...HOWEVER THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF BY 0.75
INCH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. LOOKS
LIKE AVERAGE QPF BY FRIDAY 00Z WILL BE AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AS WE GO
NORTH. IN REGARDS TO PCPN TYPE...IF ANYTHING CAN REACH OUR FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WE MAY SEE A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. COLD AIR IS QUICK TO MOVE IN AND
SHOULD TURN EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LOWER QPF AMOUNTS.
LIGHT SNOW COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
ADVANCES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS SO WL CONTINUE WITH SMALLER POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD CLIP KOMA THROUGH 08-10Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO APPROACH 12KTS AT KOFK BY 15-18Z AND
BEYOND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD