FXUS63 KOAX 230920
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD
OF A BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA WHILE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST. BROAD NRN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP
MIX DOWN TEMPS BRIEFLY AROUND MAX HEATING TIME. SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06Z
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...SFC LOW WL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED
PCPN REACHING OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES. HAVE REDUCED POPS AND DELAYED
ONSET SLIGHTLY TO REPRESENT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING. ADDITIONAL
PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES
ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. STRONG UPFLOW WL LIKELY
GENERATE HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR WEST BUT PCPN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EWD AND DIMINISH. WE COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTH.
A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.
00Z MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON THIS AND SO WL
ADD SOME POPS TO SUNDAY THRU MONDAY FOR OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK BY 24/03Z.
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6 TO 11 KNOTS INITIALLY...BUT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AT KOFK BY 20Z...KLNK
BY 21Z...AND KOMA BY 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD