FXUS63 KOAX 262115
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
SWRN STATES LATE TONIGHT AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSE TO THE
OK PANHANDLE WITH STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT QUICKLY SPREADING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT PCPN ACTIVITY
WILL PRETTY MUCH BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 SUNDAY
AFTN THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT LLVL MOIST ADVECTION
INTO THE SRN CWA WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO KS SFC LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON. PCPN MIX OF RAIN/FZRA/SLEET/SNOW
STILL EXPECTED WITH RUSH OF CAA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS
MENTIONED...BEST MOIST TO TAP INTO WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA
AND EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NEVERTHELESS
TRAVEL DURING THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR COULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT.
DEE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WEEK AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THUS...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE SURGE LIKELY WILL PEAK ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WHERE PRECIP
INITIATES IS MORE OF A QUESTION...AS CWA IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THAT AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN ON
THURSDAY AND MAINLY RAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION AS PROFILE COOLS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
COOL A TOUCH BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD AIR PUSH...AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL ONLY
TO READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. BY SATURDAY...STRONGER
WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY TO FOCUS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...WITH GFS ON A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK THAN THE ECMWF...AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT
LEAST FOR NOW.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE EVNG...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CIGS THAT ALLOW FOR SOME VFR CONDS BEFORE 06Z. AFTER THAT
TIME THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND ALLOW
FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP AGAIN. GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS...WE MAY SEE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL.
SHLD SEE OMA/LNK GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER 06Z THRU NEAR 14/15Z BEFORE
MVFR CONDS RETURN. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOV THRU THE TAF
LOCATIONS ON SUN MRNG TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NE AND ALLOWING FOR
CIGS AND VISBY TO IMPROVE TOWARD 18Z.
JB
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$