FXUS63 KOAX 050933
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE FA AS UPPR LVL TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THRU THE DAY. DID LOWER GOING HIGHS A
TOUCH MOST AREA SINCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACRS THE FA
TODAY WHICH SHLD LIMIT MIXING DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WENT WITH A
MIXING TO NEAR H9 FOR HIGHS TODAY. NEXT SHRTWV WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE FA IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW...AND WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE
ROCKIES TODAY MOVG INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV THIS EVNG AND CONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION...AND PRECIP AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT OVER THE NW FA. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOV OFF TO THE E SUN
MRNG WITH PRECIP ENDING BY AFTN OVER THE NRN CWA. THE PRECIP TYPE
SHLD BE ALL SN...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK UNDER AN INCH. A LULL IN THE
PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD...AND BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT AND THRU THE DAY ON MON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LIFT APPEARS A LITTLE
STRONGER. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU
MON FOR THE CNTRL AND NRN FA. PRECIP TYPE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SN...ALTHOUGH A RA/SN MIX MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTH MON AFTN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOV OFF TO THE E MON AFTN WITH LIFT
WEAKENING. THE FINAL...AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING THRU THE GREAT BASIN ON MON...AND HEAD FOR THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY TUE MRNG. WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE A LULL IN PRECIP
LATE MON AFTN THRU A GOOD PART OF MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFT INCREASES
ON TUES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE EJECTION OF THE
CLOSED MID-LVL CIRCULATION. WE ARE NOT SURE IF THAT IS A GOOD
TREND OR NOT...BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FM THE 00Z NAEFS AND THE 18Z
04 MAR AFWA ENSEMBLE ALSO LEND SOME SUPPORT THIS TREND. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS DOESN'T REALLY REQUIRE MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO THE
GOING FORECAST...BUT DID TWEAK THE PRECIP TYPE FOR A LITTLE COLDER
SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...BUT SOME
ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE CNTRL AND NRN FA FROM TUE INTO
EARLY WED.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
12Z TAFS
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
AND REMAINS INTO THIS EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WORK IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
PEARSON
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$