FXUS63 KOAX 130819
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH COMPETING DRY NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP LIMIT ANY NORTHERN EXTENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL SKIES WILL ALSO BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS...THUS DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WAVE ESPECIALLY AFFECTS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THERE...WITH JUST
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW THIS EVENING...AND BELIEVE THIS MAY BE SETTING UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER REGION.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW
REALLY DOESN/T TAKE HOLD UNTIL WELL INTO THE DAY...THUS CUT BACK
HIGHS JUST A BIT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE MIXING WONT BE
THAT GREAT. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND IT WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE A REALLY NICE DAY.
NEXT FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERALLY ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...ALL EXCEPT THE SREF WHICH STILL INDICATES SOME PRE
FRONTAL SHOWER POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ENDING BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STRONGER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 30 MPH...THUS BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THIS ALSO TAPS INTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO WHICH SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 60S.
GFS STILL HINTS AT SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DOESN/T SUPPORT THIS AS MUCH. CAN/T REALLY DISCOUNT THIS YET I
SUPPOSE THUS LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. FRONT
PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL SEPARATE COOLER UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL UPPER 60S
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
70
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
EXPECT AREA OF MVFR CIGS EAST OF LINE FROM ABOUT KONL TO KLNK THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU ABOUT 16Z AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THE REST OF THE FCST PD. AT KLNK HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE PROB30 GROUP FOR -RA IN ASSOCIATION WITH POTENT DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. BRUNT OF ANY PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KLNK AREA.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$