FXUS63 KOAX 170752
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AS CLOSED SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR TODAY...COLD
EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE NRN CWA THIS MORNING THEN SRN AREAS
THIS AFTN. MIXING DOWN FROM ABOUT 900MB PER BUFKIT BEHIND FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN. OTHERWISE PCPN CHANCES
THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING NORTH...THEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTH MOSTLY BASED UPON PLACEMENT OF LOWEST COND PRES DEF ASSOCIATED
WITH PERSISTENT 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOIST ADV. NEGATIVE
LAYER MAX THETA-E DIFF SUGGESTING ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM KANSAS INTO KOMA AND KLNK TAF SITES
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DRIZZLE AND
FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MORE
LIKELY VFR CIGS NEAR FL040 ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS
AT KOFK AROUND 15Z AND AT KOMA AND KLNK NEAR 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH NORTH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 12KTS.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$