FXUS63 KOAX 102031
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE ON
SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A BLANKET OF SNOW COVER STILL EXISTED. THE SNOW COVER WAS
ERODING FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
AFFECT TEMPERATURES MUCH AFTER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN ROCKIES. THAT LOW WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN
DIVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. OUR NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE 50S WHERE COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY HAS SHIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO WILL
REMOVE SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WE HAD GOING IN OUR NORTH. THIS ALSO
APPLIES TO FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN MIXED LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...SO LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THEN
A REBOUND OF 15 DEGREES OR SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND DESPITE NORTH WINDS PUTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO INTO
CANADA BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BOTH
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER WILL FOCUS RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD ON THE WAY WITH A BIG WARM UP BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THRU THE FORECAST AREA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. WL CONTINUE WITH A LOW POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. MAY
HAVE A RA/SN MIX IN THE NORTH WITH PRIMARILY RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER WAVE PUSHES A WEAK
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON HOW
STRONG ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WL BE BUT WL ADD A SMALL POP AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT SMALL QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW
LEVEL SRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
STRONG WAA UNDERWAY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...PUSHING HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 06Z.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$