FXUS63 KOAX 010911
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
411 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BEATRICE. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THESE SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND WITH CLOUD CEILINGS AROUND 8 TO
10 KFT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN CHECK GIVEN CLOUD COVER.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN REMNANT MOISTURE/SHORTWAVE OVER
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE DRYING TAKING OVER LATER THIS MORNING
UNDER RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THESE RISING HEIGHTS PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BY SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION
TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON ITS
IMPACT ON EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PREFERRED 00Z
RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART...THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS QUITE WARM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SURGE TO AROUND 20C. AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THIS WARM WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS EVEN CLOSE TO 80. WASN'T READY TO GO THAT WARM YET AS THE
LOW COULD TRACK MORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST...LIMITING OUR TIME IN THE
WARM SECTOR. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER THOUGH AND LIMITED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECT A BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CRASH BELOW ZERO. THIS ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTH
WIND WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO BREAK 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE GIVEN STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH...KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MORNING CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST INTERMITTENT LIFR EXPECTED
AT KLNK THIS MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR AT KOMA.
EXPECT BOTH TO CLEAR UP BY MID-MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BY AROUND
15-16Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 15KT
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT...WITH GUSTS FALLING OFF AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...MAYES