FXUS63 KOAX 130832
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POWERFUL SPRING STORM RUSHING ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEST COAST SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OF CONCERN WILL COME ASHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE SPARED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS THE CWA REMAINS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. BY THE TIME ENOUGH CAA TO SUPPORT SNOW ROLLS IN
LATE FRIDAY NIGH...BEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EWD WITH
EXITING SYSTEM. HAVE NOTICED THAT RUN-TO-RUN NAM/GFS HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH MAX OMEGA VALUES NOW ABOUT 20-25
MICROBAR/SEC PHASING WELL WITH STOUT 500-300MB QVECT CONVG. PW PROGS
MODELS HAVE INCREASED PW VALUES AS WELL AND NOW ADVERTISE AROUND 200%
OF NORM RESULTING PCPN TOTALS BY EVENTS END GENERALLY AROUND 3" WITH
PLACEMENT THOUGH VARYING BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECM. AS A MATTER
OF FACT...LOCATION FOR GREATEST TOTALS FOLLOWING CLOSE TO MAXIMIZED
850-250MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. NAM/CMC FOCUSING HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY
CNTRL NEB...WHILE GFS/ECM MORE OR LESS OVER SD. AT ANY RATE...CWA
WILL STILL END UP WITH GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS MENTIONED WITH
INFLUX OF CAA...THINK THAT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AREAS NORTH WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH. AS FOR CONVECTION...NEITHER
THE NAM NOR GFS SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH
THOUGH DO PUSH MODEST INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN CWA THUS POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THAT THURSDAY HAS
BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FCST BUST. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO LEAN BIT TWD
THE MAV NORTH AND THE MET SOUTH.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14/06Z AT TAF SITES. SEVERAL
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SERN
NEBRASKA REACHING KOMA/KLNK VCNTY AROUND 13/21Z AND AID IN SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN NERN NEBRASKA.
THE SECOND AREA WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF EITHER IMPACTING A TAF SITE DURING
THE VALID PERIOD APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE WITH 13/06Z TAFS.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY.
RC
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$