FXUS63 KOAX 140809
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED PCPN THIS MORNING. FIRST
ONE LOCATED OVER NERN KS/NW MO/SE NEB ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO WRN KS...WITH OTHER OVER NW IA/SW
KS IN AREA OF VERY STRONG 295K UPGLIDE. GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS POINT AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING IMPRESSIVE SPRING STORM ZIPPING ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PCPN THRU EARLY SAT MORNING.
GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS A GIVEN...BUT AM CONCERNED IF ENOUGH CAA
FILTERING BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO ANY SNOW FALL WRN
CWA. AS A MATTER OF FACT...NAM AND GFS ALGORITHM COMBINING QPF...SFC
WIND>30KT...BNDRY LYR TEMP<0C...VSBY<1/4 SM SUGGESTING PORTIONS
WRN/CNTRL NEB PRIME FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS POINT MODELS STILL INDICATING ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO
OUR CWA TO BE CONCERNED WITH ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR AND LIKELY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN. HAVE ENDED PCPN
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD AND INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING APPEARED TO BE EITHER
EITHER SE OF TAF SITES OR THE CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN 14/06Z
TAFS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND AMENDED IF SIGNIFICANT. ALSO IT APPEARED MVFR CIGS WOULD HOLD
OFF TIL THIS AFTERNOON AT KOFK...BUT CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING N
OF THERE SO THEY MAY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED. WITH SURFACE LOW
OVER TX PANHANDLE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS BY
15/00Z...STRONG E TO NE SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE STRONG CROSS
WINDS TO AREA RUNWAYS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
MOVE INTO SERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STRONGEST SHOULD REMAIN S OF TAF SITES.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$