FXUS63 KOAX 150808
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH MANY ISSUES TO FOCUS
ON...PRIMARILY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...AND OVERALL IMPACTS FOR AN EARLY SPRING
SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE REGION. BOTTOM LINE...ITS NOT GOING TO BE A
NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY.
996 SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 16/00Z...THEN TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH 16/12Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE YESTERDAY EVENING GAVE WAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVED INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FILLING BACK IN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP AGAIN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE
WINDS SWITCH FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTH NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS
WILL INITIALLY OCCUR FROM ALBION NORTHWARD TO YANKTON...MOST
LIKELY BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD
COLUMBUS...NORFOLK AND WAYNE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS NEVER
REALLY DO GET BELOW BREEZING...AND SNOWFALL COMING DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS...AS
DEPICTED BY LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN BACK TO 20 TO 35 MPH...OVERALL
IMPACTS SUGGEST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...BUT HAVE FROM
2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE ALBION TO NIOBRARA
LOCATION. SECONDARY CONCERN IS INCREASING WIND SPEEDS FURTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST...AND WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FROM AREAS FROM FREMONT SOUTHWARD TO
BEATRICE. OVERALL...HOURLY TEMPS SHOULD FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND BE STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THEN FALL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AND
GENERALLY END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION HERE. SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE I80 REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ISOLATED SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH SEEMS TO
STALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
WE HAVE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVED CIGS AT KOMA AND
KLNK. LOOK FOR THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS MOVES INTO MISSOURI. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AS IS MAY
TRY TO APPROACH KLNK LATER THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AGAIN AS THE RAIN REDEVELOPS. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE KOFK AREA THIS MORNING AND LOOK FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND 15Z
AND ALL SNOW AFTER 18Z. KLNK AND KOMA WILL BE WARMER...AND FOR NOW
HAVE KLNK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 21Z AND KOMA COULD SEE A MIX
AFTER 00Z. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER
03Z...HOWEVER THE CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY. THE EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 22KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH...AND NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 23 TO 28KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 35KTS.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ043-044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ012-017-018-031-032-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-016-030.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$